Swarm Space Weather: Variability, Irregularities, and Predictive capabilities for the Dynamic ionosphere (Swarm-VIP-Dynamic)

The research project aims at providing advanced models of the dynamic ionosphere, which will address plasma irregularities, allow for studies of turbulent structuring, ionospheric plasma dynamics, and will also contribute to the development of forecasting of space weather effects based on in-situ satellite data. The team aims at using novel modelling approaches as well as approaches that have already proven to be successful in developing models based on in-situ satellite measurements.

This proposal should be understood in a broader context of providing a framework that would include advanced dynamic models of the Earth’s ionosphere, including ionospheric interactions with the magnetosphere and lower atmosphere. The work will be within a larger Science Cluster (ESA Solid and Magnetic Earth Science Cluster), and it is envisioned that during the project, active collaboration with teams working on other topics within the given ITT will take place.

The primary objective of the new Swarm-VIP-Dynamic project is to provide a suite of dynamic models of the topside ionosphere able to predict key-quantities and demonstrate the operation of such models to operate in a real-time environment.  The attainment of this primary objective is based on an ambitious programme of model development, which is only possible due to the lengthy time series of Swarm observations which are now available, the suite of instruments available, the data products which have been generated from these observations and the orbital configuration, which samples all latitudinal regions at all local times.

This overall objective will be accomplished through the pursuit of the following specific objectives:

1. An improved modelling method and a new model formulation.
2. Including the ability to include the thermospheric contribution and to model small-scale irregularities.
3. Including the ability to model the interhemispheric variability of ionospheric irregularities.
4. Realizing a thorough validation and performance assessment of the model capabilities.
5. Testing the feasibility of a prototype for a Space Weather nowcasting and forecasting services.
6. Create interactive visual representations of the models and data in the timeline viewer
7. Provide recommendations for future development of the models towards operations and future forecasting services exploiting LEO satellites.